South Australia forecasts

South Australia comprises of seven SA4's, four of which are within Greater Adelaide. Regions do not receive equal share of population growth, with Adelaide - North accounting for a 39% share of the population growth in this outlook.  

If your organisation is planning for the future, at some point you'll need to rely on a population forecast. 

.id's population forecasts are an independent view of population that fit within the national narrative of growth, and consider the overall capacity of local areas to sustain the population.

Our team has over 25 years experience in population forecasting across the country. Through our tops-down and bottoms-up approach we go into extensive research to how a place is changing into the future. Learn about our process here.

How we compare to State Government forecasts

The South Australian Government last published their projections in 2019. These forecasts are based on the 2016 Census, so as at March 2023 they do not account for the latest information from the 2021 Census. An update to these projections is expected in May 2023. 

The state government forecasts use a multi-series approach to forecasting with a range of potential outcomes to consider. They produce a low, medium and high series, with medium being the most likely forecast scenario. The forecasts reflect a range of population futures, and it became a case of user beware trying to consider which series to use. 

State government forecasts can serve a different purpose to independent forecasts. They are essentially a tool to help allocate funding to local governments rather than for planning for future resourcing and services to local communities.

By contrast we produce a single scenario, small area forecast which is the most likely population and housing outcome based on all the available information at the time of publication. 

When compared to the State Government population forecasts we begin with a higher 2021 population (based on the 2021 Census for Population and Housing) and forecast growth in-between the high and medium series. 

In South Australia, forecasts are available at SA2 level. Forecasts at SA2 level can omit the nuance of place. For example, in growth suburbs many residential developments may be approved. The timing and sequencing of these developments becomes critical information to get the timing of new services right. We know that growth does not happen everywhere equally. By understanding the 'where' within a suburb will help make more informed decisions. 

To access forecasts at the small area level (SAFi detail), the when and where become much clearer to answer.  

To learn about the detail behind each SA4, click through the map to read about our forecasts in each region.