Recent growth a spike, not a trend
The unprecedented growth rates Tasmania experienced between 2017 and 2020 have led to the current tensions in housing affordability and infrastructure planning. However, this growth rate has slowed during the pandemic, and recent migration data shows young people returning to mainland capital cities once again.
As a result, our forecasts show Tasmania returning to historically normal levels of growth over the longer term, after a short-term spike in growth arising from the current high levels of overseas migration - a correction after net losses during the pandemic.
Deaths to exceed births within a decade
Natural increase (the net of births and deaths) is a component of population growth in all parts of Australia. However our forecasts show Tasmania will experience natural decrease within 10 years.
Tasmania is the oldest state in Australia, and its increasing popularity as a retirement destination means it is only getting older.
This ageing population means there are fewer women in the most fertile age groups. This factor, combined with declining fertility rates (women having fewer children), means deaths are forecast to outweigh births in Tasmania within ten years, making migration (either from inter-state or overseas) essential to balance the ageing population.
A continued decline in the school-aged population
The school-aged population (5-17 year-olds) of Tasmania has been steadily declining since the 1970s. And although we forecast a temporary increase over the next few years (linked to the recent recovery in overseas migration), the continuous departure of young adults to the mainland means there won't be as many young families forming in Tasmania, resulting in a further decline in the school-aged population in that state.
Not as many future housing connections
After a period of strong population growth, Tasmania is playing catchup with housing supply and infrastructure planners are preparing for a new growth paradigm. However, our forecasts show this level of growth and population pressure will not be sustained in the longer term.
Join us to hear the story for each region
These are some of the big-picture trends impacting Tasmania, but of course, they will not be felt equally in all regions of the state.
Join us to hear our a regional and localised analysis of the hotspots that will experience the most signficant changes in population and land use over the next 25 years.
