Up, and out: The population forecast for South Australia

Presented by the forecast.id team from .id (informed decisions), this webinar shares our latest forecasts for each region of South Australia.

Register for the live webinar

Wednesday, 29th November 2023

2.30 PM ACDT (South Australian time)
3.00 PM AEDT (Eastern states)

A 30-minute presentation of our forecasts will be followed by 30 minutes for Q&A with our forecasters. All registrants will be sent the presentation slides and the webinar recording.

Register here →

This webinar was first presented in March 2023.

Five big stories for South Australia

Join us to hear the results of our detailed research into the demographic drivers of change in each region of the state, and what our detailed assessment of current and future housing development tells us about when, where and how much growth we can expect in each part of South Australia over the next 25 years.

Here are five big stories we will be discussing in more detail in the webinar.

1. 375,000 additional South Australians over the next 25 years

That's the state's share of th 1.8 million people we forecast will be added to Australia's population in the same period.

2. It's all happening in the Adelaide-North region

This region is home to growing young families and with ample land supply to support Greenfield growth, the Adelaide-North region and, in particular, suburbs like Elizabeth, Gawler, and Salisbury will be home to the largest growth fronts, accounting for 40% of South Australia's overall growth over the next 25 years.

3. Overseas migration remains the big story in town

While SA only receives a relatively small share of the total migration to Australia from overseas, it remains the most significant driver of population growth in the state

4. The youth brain drain persists

This is a long-standing and cyclical pattern, that South Australia loses more young people to other states than it gains from them, and while it reversed momentarily during the pandemic, we're already seeing that pattern return

5. Zoned land or sites marked for development ≠ future housing

Just because land is zoned or a site is marked for future development, you can't assume someone will live there any time soon

At the local level, understanding future housing development is key to understanding how the population will be distributed throughout a region.  But if you're using zoning or identified development sites to forecast where people will live in the years ahead, you're probably overestimating future demand.

Register here to hear the full story, or for a copy of the slides and recording →

Meet the panellists

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal forecaster

Johnny is a population forecaster and spatial consultant with an extraordinary knowledge of places across Australia. He has been analysing Australia’s urban changes since the late 1980s. This knowledge is now being used to inform .id’s view on population change in the post-Covid world.

Sally Blandy

Sally Blandy

Location strategy consultant

Sally specialises in providing strategic advice based on demographic evidence across a range of industries including utilities, property, education and local government.

Jake Carter

Jake Carter

Population forecaster

Jake’s background is in strategic urban planning, having most recently worked as a Strategic Planner at Brisbane City Council. Jake also has consulting experience working on economic development and social inclusion strategies for large scale urban regeneration projects. As a population forecaster at .id, Jake works closely with our local government partners who subscribe to forecast.id.

Andrew Hedge

Andrew Hedge

Content and communications

With a background in marketing and communications, Andrew shares the analysis, insights and stories of place uncovered by our forecasters as they undertake detailed research into what's driving population change in each region of Australia.