South Australia - Outback, 

SA4 Region South Australia

South Australia - Outback is forecast to grow from 85,586 to 86,789 by 2046, an increase of 1,203 people throughout the forecast period. Home to some of the most remote places in Australia, development activity in the region is mostly limited to the Eyre Peninsula.

Version 5.1.0 Published 5th May 2023

2023 Population forecast data for South Australia - Outback SA4 Region is now available

Purchase a one-off forecast report for a custom catchment or contact our team for a quote to access the complete dataset.



Insights behind our population and dwellings forecasts for South Australia - Outback SA4. 

Key Findings

The population of South Australia - Outback in 2021 was 85,586. The population is forecast to grow by 1,203 persons to reach 86,789 in 2046. This accounts for 0.3% of South Australia's population growth over the next 25 years.

  • The number of dwellings in South Australia - Outback is forecast to grow from 44,919 in 2021 to 48,129 in 2046, an additional 3,209 dwellings.
  • The region's population centres generally revolve around mining towns in the 'Iron Triangle' and historic trading routes. Hence, Whyalla SA2, Port Augusta SA2, and Port Lincoln SA2 hold the largest shares of the region's population. However, of the three SA2s, only Port Lincoln SA2 will experience both population and dwelling growth over the forecast period, with Whyalla SA2 and Port Augusta SA2 both set to decline.
  • Port Lincoln SA2 is forecast to contribute 1096 persons to 2046, accounting for 91% of the regions population growth throughout the forecast period. It is also set to contribute 1,000 dwellings, accounting for 30% of the region's dwelling growth to 2046.
  • Eyre Peninsula SA2 is forecast to experience the second largest dwelling growth in the region, accounting for 21.7% (698) of the regions growth to 2046.

Read on below for charts, maps and tables sharing the forecast results at SA2 geography. 


Geography and the role and function of place

South Australia - Outback SA4 is made up of 15 SA2s which cover approximately 10% of Australia's surface area. Contrasted by rugged outback and bustling sea towns, the region is the perfect representation of Australia's developable land restrictions. From the centre of the SA4, the region expands over 500km in each direction funneling south into the Eyre Peninsula. At the top of the funnel, significant populations begin around Port Augusta and Ceduna, and then towards Whyalla, the most populous centre of the region, then proceeds downwards to the tip of the Peninsula in Port Lincoln, where the majority of the region's future growth is located. 

Concentrated in the Eyre Peninsula, the region's population centres generally revolve around mining towns in the 'Iron Triangle' like Port Augusta and Whyalla, or along historic trading routes like Port Lincoln. These regions generally expand in population once a resource or route is identified, and maintain as such until the resource is exhausted and then decline, or, the town evolves beyond its original purpose and attracts growth through other methods.

In terms of transport, the regions relies heavily on personal transportation given its remoteness and sheer size. The trainlines functional within the region are used only for commercial and tourism purposes.


South Australia - Outback Forecast Results




National and State population forecast

A new census cycle means new 2021 ‘Tops-Down’ national to state to SA4 forecasts based on up-to-date macro-level population and economic assumptions. For more information on our ‘Tops-Down’ forecast assumptions and results, read our National and State Population Forecast Review.

SAFi Review

Commentary and analysis from our specialist team of population forecasters.

Meet the full team →

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Population forecasting lead
Darren Thomas

Darren Thomas

Land Supply Lead

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

Ben Saines

Land use research

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Public resources for local areas

Find resources for other parts of South Australia and Australia via our demographic resource centre.

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the South Australia - Outback SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for South Australia - Outback SA4 Region.