2022 POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW

Logan-Beaudesert Region, Queensland

The continued southward expansion of Greater Brisbane is forecast to make Logan-Beaudesert the third-fastest growing region in Queensland in the next twenty years.

Population forecast data for the Logan-Beaudesert region is now available

Purchase a one-off forecast report for a custom catchment or contact our team for a quote to access the complete dataset.

SELF-SERVE REPORT COMPLETE DATASET

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The insights and analysis behind our forecasts of population and dwellings for Logan, Queensland.

Overview

Top-down

How the big picture stories will impact the future population of Logan-Beaudesert.

Bottom-up

How available housing and planned development are forecast to distribute the population across the region.

Here are the key findings of our forecasts for the Logan-Beaudesert region.

Read our full analysis below for a more in-depth analysis.

  1. Logan will be the third-fastest growing region (SA4) in Queensland over the next 20 years.
  2. The area contains the Queensland State Government's Priority Development Areas (PDAs) of Greater Flagstone and Yarrabilba
  3. Given the main driver of population growth in this region is the outward expansion of Greater Brisbane, our forecasts have balanced planning expectations for growth in these Priority Development Areas with growth we forecast will occur further north around Park Ridge, Logan Reserve and Bahrs Scrub - areas that are closer to Brisbane City where there is evidence of recent development activity and identified capacity for more.

  4. With so much development planned it's important to keep an eye on demand. Based on what we know about the forecast population (demand), our forecasts assume that only 45% of identified future residential land supply will be completed in the forecast period.

 

 

Forecast intervals Single years 2016 to 2041
Data available Population (total and by single-year-of-age)
Dwellings
Geography Proprietory SAFi geography, providing more granular forecast detail in growth areas.
Forecast version 4.0.0
Release date May 2022
Formats .csv, spatial file

 

Contact our team here for a quote to access the forecast data, as an entire dataset or for a custom catchment for a specific project.

Every region has unique characteristics that impact the size, age and distribution of the population.

In the Northern parts of the Logan-Beaudesert region where we've forecast most growth will occur, it's worth paying close attention to the flood overlay in the planning scheme. 

In the course of our research to identify future development capacity, there were a number of sites zoned for residential development that we haven't included in our capacity counts as they are unlikely to be developed due to flooding risks.

An example of how the flood overlay in Loganlea affects a number of potential development sites.

Flood overlay in Loganlea

 

 

Commentary and analysis from our specialist team of population forecasters.

Meet the full team →

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Population forecasting lead
Darren Thomas

Darren Thomas

Land use and development site research
john-o

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

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Geography &
Role and function

In its northern extremity, the Logan-Beaudesert region operates like a typical fringe growth area as it accommodates the southward expansion of Brisbane's southern suburbs. Further to the south and west, it plays a different role and function as a rural lifestyle area with a much lower population density.

 

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Public resources for local areas

Access our public resources for the City of Logan and the Scenic Rim Regional Council LGAs. 

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Do you work with local government?

If you're involved in planning local government services, we have a specialist population forecasting team that helps councils advocate for the needs of their community. Learn more about forecast.id here.

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Defining 'Regions'

The way we define places is fundamental to our forecasting process and to understanding the nuances of and interrelationships between places. In this review we use Region interchangeably with the technical term Statistical Area 4 or SA4. SA4s are designed by the ABS to represent labour markets and functional areas of Australia. You can read more about how SA4s are defined on the ABS website here.

Top-down

How the big-picture stories will impact the future population of Logan-Beaudesert

Before we started work forecasting in Logan-Beaudesert, we completed a series of 'Top-down' forecasts.

  • National forecasts (How is the total population of Australia forecast to change?)
  • State and territory forecasts (What share of that growth will go to each State and Territory?)
  • State-to-SA4 forecasts (What share of the state's growth will go to each region of Queensland?

This 'top down' process ensures our forecasts for Logan-Beaudesert consider what's happening in other regions, states and territories, and account for the role and function of Logan-Beaudesert within this context. Our bottom-up process then distributes the total forecast population for the region by matching people in households to available dwellings.

In our Queensland after Covid webinar, we discuss how favourable economic conditions, including a burgeoning renewables industry, defence spending and the 2032 Olympics informed our top-down forecasts for Queensland and its regions. 

Watch our Queensland after Covid webinar on here.

Why we've forecast significant growth in the Logan-Beaudesert region 

Identified priority growth areas

Yarrabilba and Greater Flagstone have been identified as Priority Development Areas by the Queensland Department of State Development, Infrastructure Local Government and Planning.  

Slow down of dwelling supply in the northern regions

As growth areas in the Moreton Bay North region start to reach capacity, we've given a greater share of forecast growth to Ipswich, Logan, and the Gold Coast.

Available land supply

The Ipswich and Logan regions, in particular, have significant capacity for additional development, compared with Brisbane City, which has limited land available for development (and is therefore where most of Logan-Beaudesert's growth is forecast to come from).

 

Avoiding the brunt of the pandemic's population impacts

Like the neighbouring Ipswich region, Logan-Beaudesert services the outward expansion of suburban Brisbane, which is limited in terms of its capacity for additional housing supply. The most significant driver of population growth in Logan-Beaudesert is therefore intra-state migration caused by the outward expansion from the South and South-Western suburbs of Brisbane City. While the region does get some growth from overseas migration, and our forecasts reflect this in the total forecast for the region (SA4) and the different areas within (SA2s), you can see in the chart below it doesn't rely on overseas migration anywhere near as much as the Gold Coast, which will be much more significantly impacted by the population effects of the pandemic.

From the bottom-up

How we forecast the population will be distributed across the Logan-Beaudesert region

At the local level, the number and type of dwellings available determine where people of different age groups and household formations live within a region.

This is why we conduct detailed research using a range of sources to understand land use policy and both current and planned residential development activity to inform where we allocate population in our micro-geography forecasts.

 

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Deciding where and when housing will be built (every developer can't be right)

Perhaps the most important thing about our top-down forecast model is that by firstly forecasting the total population, we quantify the demand for housing in that region, and in doing so, provide a constraint for the growth.

Our bottom-up research aims to distribute this ‘target’ population across the hundreds of small areas that make up a region. To do this, we conduct in-depth research to identify the timing, location and sequence of significant sources of new housing.  Our forecasters then make decisions to match the forecast population with the forecast supply of dwellings. In most cases, not all planned development is used. This next section shares our thinking behind these decisions.

This information is available either as evidence of our forecast assumptions or as a stand-alone forecast of residential development, available as a spatial layer or spreadsheet data file. Download a sample here or contact our team for more information.

urban.com.au Nearmap Cordell Queensland treasury OpenLot.com.au Brisbane development Development-ready Callpoint spatial City of Gold Coast-1 Scenic Rim regional council Realestate.com.au

To demonstrate the difference between forecast development and capacity for development, the following map shows the percentage of identified capacity that our forecasters expect will be completed in the different parts (SA2s) of Logan-Beaudesert within the forecast period. 

 

An abundance of supply

As in neighbouring Ipswich, Logan-Beaudesert presented us with an abundance of potential housing supply that would determine the distribution of the future population throughout the region. 

Development hotspots

Our forecasts assume the continuation of existing development patterns, particularly around areas like Park Ridge, Logan Reserve, Bahrs Scrub and Yarrabilba, where there is plenty of current development activity happening. The alternative would be to forecast a slow-down in these areas to ramp up demand in other areas, and we haven't seen any indication or evidence for that shift.  

The Greater Flagstone Priority Development Area has only one estate currently underway, and with so much supply identified closer to the city in the areas listed above, we have been more conservative with the rate of development in this area.

 

Are we forecasting high-density development in Logan-Beaudesert activity centres?

Springwood, Kingston, Loganlea and Meadowbrook have all been zoned as activity centres with planning approval for higher density housing. However, given the abundance of supply both in surrounding areas and in new greenfield sites not far away, we don't see sufficient demand to support significant levels of the population living in higher-density developments in these activity centres within the forecast period. We will be monitoring these areas for any evidence of an increase in residential intensification.

Evidence of demand in established areas

With developments such as Yarrabilba, a single developer owns the entire area, and can therefore bring on new stages as earlier stages sell - there is a relatively pure relationship between supply and demand. However, when we see development in existing areas such as Park Ridge and Logan Reserve, despite there being more friction to development, we see this as good evidence for forecasting continued demand for housing in these areas.

 

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Ipswich region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for the Ipswich region.