Barossa - Yorke - Mid North, 

SA4 Region South Australia

Barossa - Yorke - Mid North is forecast to grow from 116,963 to 137,117 by 2046, an increase of 20,154 people throughout the forecast period. Home to Australia's staple wine regions, the SA4 is forecast to experience the greatest growth out of the rural South Australian SA4s

Version 5.1.0 Published 15th May 2023

2023 Population forecast data for Barossa - Yorke - Mid North SA4 Region is now available

Purchase a one-off forecast report for a custom catchment or contact our team for a quote to access the complete dataset.



Insights behind our population and dwellings forecasts for Barossa - Yorke - Mid North SA4. 

Key Findings

The population of Barossa - Yorke - Mid North in 2021 was 116,963. The population is forecast to grow by 20,154 persons to reach 137,117 in 2046. This accounts for 5.4% of South Australia's population growth over the next 25 years.

  • The number of dwellings in Barossa - Yorke - Mid North is forecast to grow from 62,750 in 2021 to 75,239 in 2046, an additional 12,489 dwellings.
  • Light SA2 and Nurioopta SA2 hold the lion's share of population growth over the forecast period, accounting for 16% (3,221) and 15% (3,045) respectively. Following the northern Adelaide growth front, these regions are currently the backstop to Adelaide's urban sprawl.
  • The region's dwelling growth is spread relatively evenly throughout the SA2, with Nurioopta SA2, Light SA2, and Moonta SA2 contributing over 1,400 dwellings each, accounting for 33% of the region's total dwelling growth.
  • No SA2s are forecast to decline in population over the forecast period, with the smallest growth forecast in Goyder SA2.

Read on below for charts, maps and tables sharing the forecast results at SA2 geography. 


Geography and the role and function of place

Barossa - Yorke - Mid North South Australian SA4 is made up of 19 SA2s, and is situated directly to the North of the Adelaide - North SA4, the state's largest growth front. Following Main North Road, the region climbs directly upwards through Gilbert Valley, flowing West down the Yorke Peninsula, and ending as North as Mount Remarkable. 

The region's most significant population centre is Port Pirie, the third corner of Australia's historic 'Iron Triangle' spanning throughout the Spencer Gulf. Although slowing in population growth, the region plays a significant role in the mining and trade of precious metals in Australia. Towards the south, population congregates around our world famous wine regions, including Clare and Barossa Valley. These areas are experiencing growth from aging populations closer to the city beginning to shift outwards, along with new families looking further away from the city for more space.

In terms of transport, the passenger railway ends in Gawler North, meaning areas other than the most southern towns of the region rely heavily on private transportation.


Barossa - Yorke - Mid North Forecast Results




National and State population forecast

A new census cycle means new 2021 ‘Tops-Down’ national to state to SA4 forecasts based on up-to-date macro-level population and economic assumptions. For more information on our ‘Tops-Down’ forecast assumptions and results, read our National and State Population Forecast Review.

SAFi Review

Commentary and analysis from our specialist team of population forecasters.

Meet the full team →

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Population forecasting lead
Darren Thomas

Darren Thomas

Land Supply Lead

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

Ben Saines

Land use research

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Public resources for local areas

Find resources for other parts of South Australia and Australia via our demographic resource centre.

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Barossa - Yorke - Mid North SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for the Barossa - Yorke - Mid North SA4 Region.