Demographic delays: How closed borders will impact the future demand for services

The closure of Australia's borders in response to COVID-19 will have significant long-term effects on our population, with flow-on impacts for housing and other services.

In this eBook, we share our covid-adjusted forecasts of population and housing, which show that by 2041 there will be

  • 1.9 million fewer Australians 
  • 519,000 fewer school-aged children (318,000 primary and 201,000 secondary-school aged)
  • 162,000 fewer homes built in Greater Melbourne alone

This slowing of population growth means reduced demand for services in the future. But the impacts won't be felt the same everywhere.

By looking at COVID-19 through a demographic lens, we see which parts of Australia will feel the brunt of this once-in-a-generation demographic event. 

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An eBook for planners

We've written this eBook to help Australian companies understand how the flow-on effects of COVID-19 are likely to impact their business and future investment and infrastructure decisions.

 

Utilities and developers

With demand for housing directly impacted by the massive decline in overseas migration caused by border closures, our forecasters share an independent view of the timing and location of new housing development, with the most significant impacts forecast in our larger capital cities and the growth areas on their fringes.

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Education planning

As overseas migrants are typically in younger, family-forming age groups, the closure of borders and huge drop-off in overseas migration will mean fewer children and therefore less demand for childcare and schools in the years to come.

Childcare
 

Retail and services

From our inner-cities to growth areas, the suburbs and regions - the drop in overseas migration will affect the size and demographic makeup of retail catchments and other service areas in most parts of Australia.

Retail

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